In recent months, a humanitarian aid convoy from Armenia arrived at the Lachin border crossing in order to provide food and medicine to the Armenians in Karabakh, but due to the injury of an Azerbaijani soldier at the border crossing in June, the entry and exit from the border crossing was stopped as a precautionary measure. Although the humanitarian aid convoy was advised by the Azerbaijani authorities to take the Aghdam-Kankendi route, the Armenian side waited at the Lachin border crossing, creating victimization and delaying assistance to Armenian citizens in Karabakh. Armenian officials claimed that Azerbaijan did not care about the Armenians in Karabakh and left them to starve and die. The Azerbaijani side, on the other hand, refused to allow passage through the border crossing on the grounds that it would create grounds for possible provocation in Armenia’s Lachin corridor, and suggested going the other way. Eventually the issue was resolved and the Russian Red Cross Committee with Azerbaijani humanitarian aid convoys were sent to Khankendi and the issue was closed. Following these events, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces have started preparing for new anti-terrorist operations with the military tension in the border region last week. The Armenian side has started to claim that Azerbaijan is attempting an invasion by creating victimization in the world public opinion. On this eve, Vladimir Putin’s statement in response to a question about Karabakh: “The Armenian authorities have recognized Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory. What’s the problem here?”, in fact, brought a clear conclusion to the problem in the region. So what made Putin make this statement?

The consequences to Armenia for turning its face to the West

Last week, Yerevan announced a joint exercise with the United States to prepare Armenian troops for “international peacekeeping” missions from September 11 to 20, which drew a strong reaction from the Kremlin. The last straw was Armenia’s signing of the Rome Convention, adopting the statute of the International Criminal Court and issuing a resolution for Putin’s arrest. In addition, Iran, which has long been in favor of protecting Armenia’s territorial integrity, is now silent in the region. The reason for this is that Armenia, which Iran considers as a friend, is getting closer to the US, which is contrary to Iran’s interests in the region. This is breaking the ice in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, and in recent weeks the two countries have been discussing new prospects for military and legal cooperation, paving the way for a strong partnership between the two countries in the region in the future. Moreover, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s warning statements after his trip to Iran show that Iran cannot enter a regional conflict by ignoring the Turkish factor. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, on the other hand, has taken advantage of Armenia’s diplomatic mistakes in this process, trying to raise diplomatic relations to the highest level by holding talks with Israel to open mutual embassies, not neglecting to strengthen relations with Russia, and at the same time not turning his back on Europe and practicing balance diplomacy brilliantly.

“In these circumstances, holding these exercises will not contribute to stabilizing the region and strengthening mutual trust.”

-Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman

What will happen next?

Following the innovations and diplomatic maneuvers in the region, Azerbaijan, with the support of other countries, left Armenia virtually alone in the region. The stance of regional actors such as Turkey, Iran and Russia against Armenia has also untied the knots of the Karabakh conflict. The best decision Armenia should take from now on is to permanently give up its Karabakh ambitions and recognize and respect Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Only in this way can Armenia integrate into the region and make good use of the economic agreements in the region for economic development. This is the most optional reality for Armenia. Moreover, Armenian separatist groups have shown their true colors to the world media with their provocations in recent weeks, demonstrating their anti-humanist and animal rights-hostile stance. The fake Nagorno-Karabakh regime should completely dissolve its structures and either withdraw from the region or surrender to Azerbaijani justice so that the Armenian civilian population can live safely in Karabakh. This is important for both the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples to live in peace and security in the region. As long as these provocations continue, blood will continue to flow from both sides and civilians will be displaced from their homes. For Azerbaijan, which cares about the peace and stability of the region, this situation is unacceptable. Even in the opposite case, Azerbaijan will not give up its peaceful stance and will not compromise even the smallest detail regarding Karabakh.