In recent years, the European Union has been planning to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent with zero greenhouse gas emissions by the mid-21st century through diplomatic and strategic moves such as the Paris Climate Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the European Green Deal. One of the EU’s focal points was nuclear energy, which largely avoids carbon dioxide emissions compared to fossil fuel energy sources that cause climate change. However, as one might expect, the transition to nuclear energy was a time-consuming and costly process. It was also highly controversial in environmentalist memory, given the nuclear disasters such as Fukushima (March 11, 2011, Japan), Tokaimura (September 30, 1999, Japan) and Chernobyl (April 26, 1986, Soviet Union).

Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron called for the closure of 20% of the country’s nuclear reactors by 2035 and a reduction in the share of nuclear in electricity generation. The UK has decommissioned most of its old nuclear reactors, while Belgium was planning to abandon nuclear power altogether. All this changed radically with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With Europe importing around 40% of its natural gas from Russia, it began to look for new ways to fill the gap.

France is currently witnessing a rebirth of the nuclear industry, with the aim of building 14 new nuclear power plants in the coming years.[1] Belgium has recently decided to extend the life of some of its nuclear reactors, while the UK is planning to build new plants. Even though countries like Germany, which rely heavily on Russian energy, are planning to shut down their nuclear power plants, energy remains an important issue for Europe. So much so that Germany has activated an early warning system in anticipation of a potential gas shortage and the government is preparing itself for the worst-case scenario.

Undoubtedly, the main justification for this decision is the stance taken by Europe against the invasion of Ukraine, requiring Russia to pay for natural gas in Rubles instead of Euros or Dollars. Germany’s Economy Minister described Putin’s action as blackmail, while Josep Borrell, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, emphasized the need to isolate Russia from the gas and oil markets.[2]

So what is Türkiye’s place and importance in the light of this diplomatic agenda? The vast majority of natural gas reserves that could meet Europe’s energy needs if Russia is eliminated from the market are located in the south and southeast of the continent. As journalist writer Mehmet Acet stated in his article published in Yeni Şafak on 31.03.2022, “Thebest route for the gas that can be transported from the Eastern Mediterranean, Egypt, Israel, Iran and Iraq, Azerbaijan, the Gulf is through Türkiye.“[3 ] Apart from its geographical location, the pipelines already in place also provide a distinct advantage for Türkiye. In short, all roads lead to Türkiye in Eurasia’s new energy agenda. It is possible to see how important Türkiye’s position is, as evidenced by the diplomatic traffic in recent months, especially the visits of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

In Türkiye’s relations with the EU, issues such as the suspended candidacy process (EU membership), the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the 2016 Migration and Visa Liberalization Agreement and payments to migrants remain. On the other hand, closer cooperation with the Gulf states, an end to the instability in Iraq and Syria, a solution to the Palestinian problem and thus a lasting peace in the Middle East could also serve Türkiye’s interests. Türkiye’s energy trump card is a once-in-a-century opportunity. Türkiye can come out of this process with a historic gain. Who knows, maybe these energy-related developments will make it possible for us to see a Turkish flag flying in front of the European Parliament in Brussels in the next decade…

Omer Valyozoglu

[1] Bryant, L. (2022, June). Abandoning Nuclear Energy is on the Shelf. Turque Diplomatique, 13(158), 1.

[2] Acet, M. (2022, March 31). All roads lead to Türkiye! Yeni Safak

[3] Acet, M. (2022, March 31). All roads lead to Türkiye! Yeni Safak