As the United States prepares for the midterm elections on November 8, 2022, the current political climate is marked by a convergence of significant challenges, including soaring inflation rates, elevated interest rates at 3.75%, heightened social polarization, and burdensome taxation. Against the backdrop of escalating societal divisions since 2016, it is anticipated that voter turnout will be robust in these elections. Amidst this landscape, three distinct election scenarios emerge, each carrying unique implications for the country’s political trajectory and policy direction.

Democrats retain their majorities in both the House and the Senate

This is the least likely scenario. Currently, 220 of the 435 House seats are held by Democrats and 211 by Republicans. In the Senate, 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans hold 100 seats, with an additional seat held by Vice President Kamala Harris, so Democrats currently slightly hold the upper hand in both legislative bodies.

For the past 2 years, President Biden has taken advantage of his majority in both the House and the Senate to easily pass many bills. If this continues, the Democrats plan to pursue legislation such as Roe (legalizing abortion), paid family leave, childcare subsidies, universal pre-k (providing preschool for all families), and pro-act (providing various rights improvements to labor organizations).

But the Democrats already have a majority in both legislative bodies, so why can’t they do it? It’s because of the so-called “filibuster”, the rule in the US Senate that allows a bill to pass or not pass. According to this rule, 60 votes are needed to pass a bill, not 51, which is an absolute majority, and the Democrats want to change this rule. The number of Democratic Senators who want to change this rule is only 48, which ties the hands of the Democrats.[1] In this election, the Democrats will want to increase their majority in the Senate and change some of the rules and pass the laws I mentioned above.

Republicans take back the House of Representatives

The most likely scenario is to see Republicans back in the House of Representatives, and having the House brings with it a lot of different powers. Republicans would have the power to open investigations, control committees, subpoenas, and compel testimony.[2] The last time the government looked like this was in 2011, and there were several investigations and scandals from the Obama administration that put the Obama administration in a very difficult position.

The most important issue in this scenario is the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling refers to the total debt that the US will take on, and right now the total debt of the US is about 30 trillion dollars. The Democrats will try to raise this ceiling in order to implement the social programs they want to do, but they need the approval of the White House, the Senate and the House. In this scenario, since the Republicans will control the House, I expect something similar to what happened in 2011, with massive cuts in government spending due to Republican pressure.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The red wave comes and the Democrats are left with only the White House

The other scenario that can play out on Tuesday is the return of both legislative bodies to Republican control. This is because the Senate race in Pennsylvania is expected to be won by Dr. Mehmet Oz, while the races in Ohio and North Carolina are highly contested, and these two states may go to the Republicans.

If the Republicans secure a majority in the Senate, it is evident that the Democrats would experience a significant diminution of power, given the Senate’s pivotal role in legislative matters, particularly concerning judicial appointments. In the United States, the Senate holds the authority to confirm Supreme Court Justices nominated by the President. Consequently, in the event of such a scenario unfolding, any nominations put forth by the White House would likely face rejection by the Republican-controlled Senate. This would result in vacancies within the Supreme Court until a Republican President assumes office in 2024, at which point nominees aligned with their political ideology would presumably be confirmed by the Senate.

It seems that it is not impossible for this to happen, in fact, looking at the Senate races in 3 states, it is very likely that the Republicans will win. The loss of both the Senate and the House would be a wake-up call to the Biden Administration and would force Biden to make major changes in both foreign policy and the economy.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeokW1-mds8

[2] https://www.house.gov/the-house-explained

[3] https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23435135/2022-midterms-congress-republican-democrat